FINANCIAL MODELING OF THE POST-FRANC CFA SCENARIOS FOR CAMEROON
Sr No:
Page No:
35-53
Language:
English
Authors:
Uwem Essia*
Received:
2025-07-12
Accepted:
2025-07-24
Published Date:
2025-07-28
Abstract:
This study explores possible post-reform CFA scenarios for an envisaged transition from the current CFA Franc
arrangement. Utilizing the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), taking Cameroon as the treated unit and five countries—Nigeria,
Namibia, Botswana, Morocco, and Libya – as control units, the study and evaluates the impact of different post-reform currency
regime scenarios on key economic indicators, particularly, economic growth, inflation rate, trade balance, and foreign direct
investment (FDI) inflows. Key findings indicate that transitioning from the current CFA Franc arrangement would yield different
economic outcomes depending on the chosen currency regime. Ranking the scenarios suggests "Pegged to Basket" as the best-case
scenario, followed by "pegged to Euro" and "comprehensive reform of the current CFA arrangement," tying as the second-best
scenario. The fifth best scenario is "pegged to USD." A balanced policy approach addressing all key economic indicators is essential
for Cameroon to achieve long-term stability and growth in the post-CFA Franc era. By prioritizing stabilizing and stimulating growth,
maintaining price stability, enhancing trade competitiveness, and attracting foreign investment, policymakers can successfully
implement a combination of the first- and second-best scenarios for a post-CFA franc currency arrangement.
Keywords:
Currency Reform, Exchange Rate Regimes, Synthetic Control Method (SCM), Franc CFA, and Monetary Policy. JEL Codes: E42, E52, F31, and F33