IMPLICATIONS OF DIRECT TAX REVENUE ON INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN NIGERIA 1970- 2024: VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL
Sr No:
Page No:
72-85
Language:
English
Authors:
Asian A Umobong, PhD*, Fred-Horsfall, Fred Vincent
Received:
2025-12-12
Accepted:
2026-01-20
Published Date:
2026-01-25
Abstract:
The goal of the study was to determine the effect of direct taxes on inflation and unemployment in Nigeria for the period
1970 to 2024 using CBN and world bank data publications for Nigeria. Direct taxes were proxied as company tax, petroleum profit
tax, education tax and personal income tax while dependent variables are inflation and unemployment. VAR method of vector error
correction model was used. Shocks were introduced to consider the period of oil boom, military regime, civilian, covid-19 and
depression to account for changes within the period. Granger Causality test was also conducted to establish direction of relationship
while post estimation analysis was also done. Education tax, personal income tax and petroleum profit taxes all have significant impact
on inflation and price changes in Nigeria. Company income taxes however do not significantly influence inflation in Nigeria. All direct
tax components in the study have significant effect on unemployment in Nigeria. However, while education tax, personal income tax
and petroleum profit taxes reduce unemployment, company income taxes increase the rate of unemployment in the country. Effects of
taxes on unemployment and inflation are more long-term rather than short-term. While the short run effects are mostly insignificant,
the long run effects are highly significant. Based on findings we recommend tax system for companies should be designed and
implemented in a way that will minimize distortions and tax administration inefficiencies taking into account the constraints that may
arise from tax administration. Government should amend tax laws to enhance better micromanagement and regulation of tax systems
to mitigate unemployment.
Keywords:
Petroleum Tax, Corporate Tax, Personal Income Tax, Education Tax, Unemployment. Inflation.